A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
